Election predictions

Obama by 3.5 percent nationally (the polls overstate the Democrats, but not by enough to matter), the Dems pick up 20 or so house seats and make it to 58 senators, Allen Buckley pushes the Georgia Senate race into a runoff, which Chambliss will pull off by a narrow margin in three weeks. Bob Barr does better than any recent LP candidate with over 1% of the vote, coming in at 3% in Georgia. Obama will be a good winner, and McCain will be gracious in defeat, and out long, lurid parade of tired whores will finally be over.

Now everyone read this article on why voting in unimportant.

Quick roundup while uploading

• A nice article on the Golden Section in design
• China and Demography from Coming Anarchy
• Making engines more efficient - using steam of all things - very cool
• Cutting Edge Designers
• Prediction Markets - nice graphics
  
• Woman jailed for testicle attack

  Amanda Monti, 24, flew into a rage when Geoffrey Jones, 37, rejected her advances at the end of a house party, Liverpool Crown Court heard.
  
  She pulled off his left testicle and tried to swallow it, before spitting it out. A friend handed it back to Mr Jones saying: "That's yours."

  
  

Funny and strange quotes

From this rather odd article about the future of Israel

As Peter O’Toole said as Lawrence of Arabia in the movie of that title, “Nothing is written.” However, it seems clear how to bet. As so often in history, bet on the horrible outcome.

I think the post is flawed as it assumes that the current Israeli situation will not change by several orders of magnitude in qualitative ways as the decades roll by. Of course, there is no reason for the changes to be good, but current trends seldom hold before Bit Rot settles in. Worth reading

What I got wrong about the Iraq war

I was going to write this a while back, but here it is. I was on the fence about it at the time, but history did not to wait for me to reach a position.

What I was wrong about with regard to Iraq (2003 assumptions)

• I thought we would have over 10,000 military deaths by this point.
  
• I thought the war would take about a year of heavy fighting.
• I thought it would be over after that year
• I thought the Sunni-Shia split would not play out as it has, rather that it would stay at or around the 2004 level
• I thought we would have much more negative blowback - for all of the shouting and protests, not much has really happened on that front
• I thought we would have found at least chemical weapons (in large quantities)
  
• I did not think that Kurdistan would turn out as well as it has
• I thought Turkey would have intervened in some form by now
• I thought al Qaida would have benefited more, it seems that they have been hurt (in terms of their ideological appeal) by the Iraq war (more on that later)
• I did not think that we would still have this many troops (fighting) at this point.
• I thought that there would be much more conventional combat, and much less of this gang warfare
• I thought that the Iraqis would have scored at least three major wins (surprise attacks in some fashion) in the scores of battles that have happened since the war began. They don't seem to have won any against American troops.
  

Needed technological advances

In keeping with Instapundit's list of needed technological advances, here are four of mine

• Cheaper Carbon Fiber materials - Much lighter and much stronger than metal, but at the moment, much more expensive. If this cost could be brought down many other technologies become economical, electric cars, prefabbed buildings, small scale wind generation, etc.
• Smart traffic lights - while these do exist at the moment, they are not in wide use. I live in a traffic-light heavy part of the city. I also do most of my car travel at non-peak hours. I still stop at most of the lights for no reason whatsoever. Smart lights (these exist already) would sense if there is a car that needs to get by and turn green (assuming there was no competing traffic) and then snap back to it's existing cycle.
• Decentralized electric power - To my knowledge, the main power grid has not been modernized, ever.
  
• Cheap wholesale medical testing - imagine just having a machine in your home that could analyze your blood or urine every day or week and test it for the top 50 detectable problems. If all of these problems are caught at the first opportunity, how many lives could be saved?
  

My predictions - with no confidence

I'm honestly not sure of the outcome. Were I betting, I would say the consensus opinion is wrong, and the Republicans hold on to both houses by a tiny margin. If I remember correctly, the polls usually underestimate the effects of the Republican ground game. Also, widely held opinions on the future are usually wrong, most lately the 2006 hurricane season. The chattering classes have seen a gathering destiny over the Democratic party that I don't think is there.

On another note, I am still quite please by the direction of the Dems this time around. Still very wrong with all the economic populism of course, but the baby boomer narcissism seems to be on it's way out.

Speaking of that, John Kerry's bit last week was (even if taken at face value) NOT insulting to the troops, it was condescending, which is why it had resonance as a criticism of him in particular and the Dems in general.

Aspects of the conventional wisdom

• Oil is the lifeblood of the Global Economy - I remember paying 94 cents a gallon in October of 2001, to $3.05 this summer, to $1.98 today (yes I realize that the price of oil does not track gas exactly, but it's close). Given that the economy of the oil consuming world has growing mildly (Europe), moderately (the US), and highly (China and India), it would seem that this is simply not true, or if true, not meaningful.
• The invasion of Iraq will turn the Muslim world against the US. Given that it's been three and a half years, and all of the opposition is still based in Iraq (with some degree of foreign investment in people and capital) this would seem not to be meaningful.
  

Very well put

From Matt Yglesias

It's not as if the opposition party has nothing to work with here. One might note the fiasco in Iraq, for example. Or OBL's still-at-large status. Our bizarre herky-jerky stumbling into wider regional conflicts that will further take the focus off of al-Qaeda and others directly trying to kill Americans. This isn't brain surgery.

On the other hand, it's not so easy that voters are going to believe it if Democrats don't even try to make the case. What's more, ducking security fights looks weak. It looks weak because it is weak. It demonstrates a lack of confidence in the party's own ideas and people. It re-enforces everything the GOP is trying to say. Democrats need to knock this off and engage with what's pretty clearly the central issue of our time.

I think this is a good example of the Dems being more centralized (having a smaller collective brain if you will) than the Reps. Rather than picking on any of the weak points in the Republican platform, they charge groin first into the capable fists of the Republican party.

I've said this before, the Democrats have situated themselves so that they don't have to win elections to make money.

Two things that have surprised me

• The Israel-Hezbollah war hasn't restarted yet.
• For all the conflict in Iraq, the government hasn't fallen, nor are there several competing governments.
  

Monday rapid fire

• Prediction Markets
• Shutter Speed
• Carter: Bush Israel's 'worst ally' in D.C. - this is American Politics at its most vapid. Two parties, or in this particular case, one party, arguing over who can better serve a foreign government? Is it so much to ask what we get out of it? Israel does have a knack for drawing the proper enemies, but this is a country that has spied on us and sank one of our warships, must we be this servile?
• Jack Handey's Art Ideas
• The Pickin' Barn
• Half of U.S. Still Believes Iraq Had WMD - Journalism at it's most vapid. It's bad enough the author uses the horrid acronym "WMD" but then he contradicts himself in the article. Half of the US still believes that Iraq had WMD, chemical weapons in this case, because they did, just not in meaningful quantity. The poll gave an accurate answer, but the author uses that as a mini rant, and it's billed as news, not commentary.
  

Things I don't believe in

A list of things I don't believe in, for no reason other than I find their proponents objectionable, or sensationalistic.

• Intelligent Design theory
• Global Warming
• Public education reform
• Keyboards in rock music
  
• Authenticity as a meaningful part of music
• McCarthyism being a defining moment of American History
• Native American culture being inherently earth friendly
• Anything to do with "carbs"
  
• Apple's vaunted OS stability
• Apple's better "interface"
• Any positive influence of Janis Joplin
• The oft-touted claim by libertarians that 20% of Americans are libertarian also
• "Natural" foods
• Homeopathy
• Divorce being a public/social problem
• Stem cell research being a big deal, for good or ill
• Biomass fuels
• Peak oil
• Addictive personalities
• Chiropractors
  

Someone is finally doing this

I've often wondered why we don't have simple home medical testing kits for the most common problems one is likely to have. Just do a simple blood or urine sample at home once a month, and then send it off to be analyzed for the 15 most common (or cheapest to test for) illnesses and you're much more likely to catch something early. I would imagine legal liabilities are the likely culprit.

It would seem that they're doing something like this in Japan.

I predict that this will be a condition of health insurance in the future.

An interesting article on demographics

The Return of Patriarchy

While I disagree with him about the value of absolute number in military conflict (that has become increasingly less meaningful over time, particularly in the past 100 years) It's a very interesting read, and falls into my own general meme that self-selection is the dominant force in our society.

Quick roundup

• It's depressing that two senators don't realize how off they are. If you want to characterize the Republican majority in the House of Representatives negatively, then the proper term is fascism (taken literally, strength in numbers, and a dictatorship thereof) rather than a plantation, the relevant characteristic being oppression of the many by the few. All to work in a racial angle I suppose.
• Tom MacGuire has more interesting thoughts on the NSA wiretapping thing. Still, why not change the law though?
• An interesting post from the Belmont Club "A stone killer is never idle in a lawless Third World country"
• America's possible action on Iran:. Evidently some lessons were learned from the lack of immediate American response to Afghanistan after 9-11.
• The Great War of 2007 - very scary possible history.
  

Prediction

While taking a short break from coding I saw the article Leaders urge calm if Williams dies on CNN.com and was stuck by two thing:

1. "Dies"? He is due to be executed by the state, and they use the broadest term possible. A lame and evasive headline.
2. What calamity has been correctly predicted recently? There were warnings of mass anti-semitism after Mel Gibson's movie, warning of 10,000 or more dead after Katrina, an economic recession due to high gas prices and so on. Here's a question: what calamity have the pundits in the media correctly predicted beforehand? They seem to have enough problems predicting the past.
   

Prediction

Bush will nominate Janice Rogers Brown to take over the Sandra Day O'Connor slot. Three names must replace 3 names. Also she's a black woman, and pleasantly libertarian as well.

You heard it here first. I also think she will be announced right after Roberts is confirmed.

20 Predictions

Bearing in mind the Pundit's Fallacy, here they are:

1. Iran will work itself out fairly peacefully.
2. Executions will increase in the US as people realize that DNA testing and soon to be omnipresent surveillance makes it ever more likely to be executing the right person.
3. Surveillance cameras will proliferate, people will complain, but they will not alter their behavior at all.
4. Animal right and environmental groups will turn violent.
5. As the legacy of campaign finance reform grows ever uglier, term limits for politicians will make a comeback.
   
6. Social Security will not be altered in the next five years. It will transform into a general welfare programs for the elderly in 15 years
7. Marijuana will be legalized on the state or county level as a tax product when some interest group like education or seniors discovers a way to exclusively reap the tax receipts.
8. Jews will leave Europe for America and Israel.
9. Saudi Arabia will become increasingly isolated in the world.
10. China will buy or "assume responsibility" for part of Siberia.
11. Japan will change it's constitution to re-arm itself.
12. India will overtake China as the dominant Asian economy, though China will be a very significant player.
13. Chechnya and Russia resume their very ugly war.
    
14. Indian Medical Vacations kick off the start of a thriving global medical treatment market as people travel to lower cost medical treatment. Also a domestic medical black market will develop for surgery and treatment.
15. While their democracy holds the Palestinians don't accomplish much. On the other hand, the Lebanese will thrive.
16. The US government will forcibly medicate all of it's prisoners with mood altering and tranquilizing drugs.
17. The battle over abortion will be overtaken by legal fights over decisions made at the beginning and end of life.
    
    The beginning of life will start with prohibitions on smoking by pregnant women, unapproved prenatal care, etc and will end with genetic testing and an "approved" lifestyle for pregnant women.
    
    The end of life fight will begin when government picks up more than 80% of the cost of health care and someone discovers the disproportionate amount spent on health care for the last few months of life. The right to die question becomes the number one question at this point.
18. Many forms of congenital birth defects and diseases vanish from the population as genetic testing improves and people selectively abort non-optimum fetuses. This will have the unintended consequence of a vicious generational conflict down the road.
19. Higher energy prices prompt a move to nuclear power and the importance of Middle Eastern oil is diminished slightly.
20. The EU will be largely irrelevant, the UK and Eastern nations will eventually move away from binding commitments to the larger whole..